The hottest service robot market in the future, ho

How many ways do domestic robots have to go in the future service robot market

with the advent of the era of intelligent manufacturing, the demographic dividend has gradually disappeared, and the rise of the "machine replacement" wave has led a large number of enterprises to enter the robot industry. The "four families" of industrial robots, led by ABB in Switzerland, KUKA in Germany, FANUC in Japan and Yaskawa electric, account for more than 70% of the market share of China's robot industry and almost monopolize high-end fields such as robot manufacturing and welding. Moreover, they are also surging production capacity

with the advent of the era of intelligent manufacturing, the demographic dividend has gradually disappeared, and the rise of the "machine replacement" wave has led a large number of enterprises to enter the robot industry. The "four families" of industrial robots, led by ABB in Switzerland, KUKA in Germany, FANUC in Japan and Yaskawa electric, account for more than 70% of the market share of China's robot industry and almost monopolize high-end fields such as robot manufacturing and welding. Moreover, they are also surging production capacity

domestic and foreign troubles, double attacks, domestic industrial robots are facing a severe test. A battle for robot supremacy has begun

however, it is an indisputable fact that the gap between domestic industrial robots and the "four families" is far greater than expected

how far is the gap between domestic industrial robots and the four families?

what is the difference between domestic robots

in terms of cost, at present, about 35% of the cost of a robot is reducer, 20% is servo motor, 15% is control system, while the value of body processing only accounts for about 15%, and the other parts are mainly integrated applications. The controller is like the brain of a robot, which can issue and transmit action instructions, mainly including hardware and software. The reducer and servo motor are used as execution units in the robot, which are the main factors affecting the working performance of the robot. It is generally believed that these are the most difficult and core parts of industrial robot technology

China's industrial robot core components are heavily dependent on imports. Take the reducer as an example. At present, 75% of the reducer Market in the world is controlled by hamenaco and Nabo in Japan, while Nabo alone accounts for about 60% of the market. The company is the world's top professional manufacturer of precision cycloid pin gear reducer for robots, and its core product is precision reducer RV series. The manufacturing of precision reducer has high investment, high technical difficulty and high barriers

in addition to the lack of core component technology, the lack of system integration ability is also an important factor causing the gap between domestic robots. According to Guo Shuai, vice president of Shanghai robotics Industrial Technology Research Institute and professor of Shanghai University, "in addition to the performance indicators of precision, speed and stiffness, the safety and reliability of industrial robots are particularly important"

Guo Shuai, for example, said that according to statistics, the average time between failures of domestic industrial robots is 8000 hours, while that of the four families is as high as 80000 hours. The reliability of the robot can be improved not only by a few key components, but also by a series of integrated schemes such as machinery, software, electricity, control and sensing. In fact, although the same key components are used, it is difficult for domestic manufacturers to make robots comparable to the four families. Hundreds of industrial robots are required to work together in the automobile production line. The gap in robot failure rate makes it rare to use domestic robots in large quantities in the automobile production line. Therefore, in terms of reliability, on the whole, the gap between China and the four families is far more than an order of magnitude

in addition, the gap between domestic industrial robots and the four families is not only in hardware, but also in software

the controller is equivalent to the "brain" of the robot, while the software is equivalent to language, which transmits the idea of the "brain", and the servo motor is equivalent to muscle, which executes the instructions from the brain. To complete each action, the robot needs the cooperation of controller, control software and servo motor. High end robots generally have more than 6 servo systems at the same time. Through the underlying algorithm, the precision control under the condition of high dynamic multi axis nonlinearity is realized, and the robot has faster response speed and more accurate positioning

although the key components of the four families, such as servo system and reducer, are open to the global market, the core algorithm has been kept secret. Someone once compared the domestic robots in 2015 with the products produced by ABB in 2005. The result is that ABB products are more prominent in some aspects. Because China has never mastered the core algorithm of the core controller of industrial robots, the "brain" of domestic industrial robots is not smart enough, and its stability, failure rate, ease of use and other key indicators are far inferior to the four families. Domestic robots can still be used for robot products that do not need high precision, but if they want to be applied to high-end fields such as aerospace, military industry, automobile manufacturing, etc., domestic robots will inevitably be more than willing and less powerful

in addition, robot, as a tool of intelligent manufacturing, has insufficient understanding of manufacturing process, which also leads to the weak comprehensive competitiveness of domestic robot integrated application end

"after nearly half a century of technological precipitation, foreign enterprises' understanding of manufacturing process and algorithm optimization can not catch up with domestic enterprises in a few years." Guo Shuai believes that this is not an industry that can be achieved overnight. Domestic industrial robots still have a long way to go if they want to squeeze into the center of the world robot stage

there is also a "virgin land"

compared with the difficult progress of industrial robots, domestic service robots are a different scene

floor sweeping robots, early childhood education robots, dancing robots, rehabilitation robots... Although their "looks" are different, with the help of the embedding of artificial intelligence technologies such as speech understanding and visual recognition, they are becoming more and more "smart", and their application scenarios are becoming more and more diverse, and they have gradually entered the home life of modern people. According to the statistics of the Ministry of industry and information technology, there are more than 1000 enterprises involved in the production of robots in China, and more than 50 industrial parks focusing on the development of robots have emerged in various regions. Qu Daokui also believes that "intelligent education, future medical treatment, health and family services, etc. in the future, robots will be more far-reaching and play a role in our whole life than manufacturing. Service and consumer robots will play a huge role in the future and have a broad market space."

however, prosperity is often accompanied by chaos. The phrase "one side is sea water and the other side is fire" is a perfect description of the service robot industry at this stage. It is reported that in June this year, Shanghai Tangbao robot was deeply involved in bankruptcy due to the fracture of the capital chain due to the influence of the parent company Tangdi information. Such cases are not unique. Service robots are pseudo requirements - more and more voices have created conditions for enterprise integration and reorganization to enter the production management system at the earliest

"the service robot is not a pseudo demand, but the demand is not fully explored." Either technology drives demand, or demand drives technology. However, in the current domestic service robot market, the technology is far from reaching the level of driving demand

Guo Shuai said that the requirements for core parts in the technical level of service robots are not as strict as those of industrial robots, and the deep integration with vertical industries and scenes is the most critical. Local enterprises are easier to develop in combination with specific environment and culture and occupy a good market positioning. This is the reason why foreign giants are difficult to enter the domestic market, and it is also the opportunity for the domestic robot industry. On the other hand, foreign service robot companies are also emerging industries, and most of them were established relatively short, so China's service robots still calculate the shore a hardness value by machine This hardness tester uses a sensor to measure the displacement of the pressure pin, and then calculates a "virgin land" in the field of human processing through the CPU

both industrial robots and service robots are highly talent and technology intensive industries. When the foam subsides, enterprises that really hype the concept, have no core technology, and do not understand the market will be ruthlessly eliminated. The consensus in the industry is that dedicated robots will represent the future of service robots, of which medical and logistics robots will be the two categories with the greatest growth potential

Da Vinci surgical robot is a kind of medical service robot, which has performed thousands of operations in the hospital since its birth. It can be used in various surgical processing processes. The wear mechanism of the tool is: when the workpiece is processed on the tool, the wearable equipment ranging from heart valve repair to tumor cutting will be more and more removed, and even has the accurate ability to sew grape skin. Although the price is as high as ten million yuan, it has become a hot product in the competitive bidding of major hospitals in China

in the future service robot market, whether it is a "large and comprehensive" enterprise or a "small and sophisticated" company facing a segmented industry, it will have its own living space to find the right positioning